“A propósito de Venezuela”

Julián Betancourt

Venezuela vuelve a ser noticia después del debate en la asamblea de la OEA y por la medida que tomo el gobierno de disolver el parlamento venezolano, medida catalogada como “Golpe de Estado” por algunos analistas. Este país se ha convertido en el vecino ruidoso para la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos, pues en ese orden de ideas a las sociedades ecuatorianas, colombianas, peruanas y en general sus países vecinos y a las sociedades que los componen, les debería tal vez dar igual como estén sus países, “pues al fin y al cabo Venezuela está peor” o al menos eso es lo que muestran los medios de comunicación a quienes les encanta mostrar la “grave crisis venezolana” situación que se torna un poco complicada al hablar sobre Venezuela, pues pareciera que los medios de comunicación dijeran todo lo que pasa haciendo imposible hablar de algo nuevo de este país; sin embargo, hay cosas que muy pocos se atreven a explicar por lo cual vale la pena dedicar unas pequeñas líneas para hablar de la situación venezolana en torno a las políticas adoptadas para llegar a la crisis de la cual no ha podido salir.

¿Cómo ha llegado Venezuela hasta donde está en estos momentos? ¿Cómo se explica que un país con las más amplias reservas petroleras casi que del mundo haya llegado al extremo de la bancarrota?; para entender un poco, empezaremos por referirnos a tiempos de Hugo Chávez quien fuera el padre de la revolución denominada “Bolivariana”. Chávez, implementó algunas políticas siendo una de sus principales “el sistema de democratización del empleo” que fue implementada en la empresa estatal de petróleos de Venezuela o sus siglas PDVSA, constituida como una empresa de petróleo, encargada también de la explotación y exploración de gas y su distribución, pero lo importante aquí y a lo que vamos a referirnos es que es una empresa encargada de la explotación del petróleo que tiene el país Venezolano que como se mencionó anteriormente sus reservas alcanzaron a estar entre unas de las más grandes del mundo.

Con esta política, muchos medios de comunicación titularon como el personal que trabajaba allí en PDVSA se había incrementado casi que al doble desde que Hugo Chávez se había hecho con el poder; las cifras estiman que en tan solo tres (3) años la planta PDVSA se había multiplicado por cuatro (4), pero lo único que no se duplico fue la producción del petróleo, pues esta siguió siendo la misma que antes, por tal razón podemos decir que la ampliación de personal para generar empleo no se debió a políticas empresariales de PDVSA para suplir puestos que necesitaban si no ha políticas del gobierno venezolano para generar más empleos; esto ni decir con la administración pública en donde paso algo similar, pues hay cifras que apuntan que durante el gobierno de Hugo Chávez el gasto público se disparó por tres y hasta por cuatro por ciento, necesitando muchos más funcionarios etc.

Aun con este panorama, y gracias a las exportaciones del petróleo las anteriores problemáticas podían ser disculpadas, ya que durante estos años Venezuela logro disminuir aproximadamente a la mitad los índices de pobreza. Muchas veces Hugo Chávez hablo de una conspiración para acabar con la revolución bolivariana por parte de occidente, sin embargo estos mismos países de la supuesta conspiración no rechazaban el petróleo del país venezolano, “para la muestra un botón” Estados Unidos y Francia, este último quien resulto aclamando la “Democracia” venezolana que al final del todo dio cabida a políticas como el famoso “exprópiese” que llevo a que la economía venezolana dependiera casi en su totalidad del petróleo, es así que para finales del año 2011 y comienzos del 2012 aproximadamente el 90 por 100 de las exportaciones del país eran de petróleo y le podemos añadir que la empresa PDVSA se valorizaba por encima de las mejores petroleras del mundo, ante este panorama mientras el precio del barril de petróleo fuera superior al costo de extracción todo sería “Alicia en el país de las maravillas”; pero todo esto se iba acabar.

En el año de 2014 los precios del petróleo cayeron, y Venezuela fue el primer país en sentir los efectos, para la época el presidente Hugo Chávez ya había muerto y se había quedado con el poder el actual presidente Nicolás Maduro, quien se encuentra a una Venezuela que ya no gana dinero con su petróleo, pero al contrario con muchas deudas de dineros de sueldos que se adeudan y en conjunto con la política de Hugo Chávez “exprópiese” llevó a que Venezuela contara con pocas empresas privadas no teniendo de dónde recaudar impuestos, pues sin empresa privada ¿Quién iba a pagar estos impuestos? Los pocos impuestos que se cobraban eran en bolívares una moneda desvalorizada, lo que en resumen seria que el gobierno no tenía dinero ni tampoco como conseguirlo; ante este panorama Nicolás Maduro toma una decisión que para muchos analistas políticos es la peor que un político puede tomar: mandar a imprimir más dinero para solventar la iliquidez; debido a la devaluación de la moneda venezolana (Bolívar) la inflación se disparó, un ejemplo de esto sería que si tu compras una gaseosa hoy en 30 bolívares entrados los próximos meses la misma gaseosa te va a costar 60 y hasta 80 bolívares; a partir de aquí es lo que se podría decir está pasando en Venezuela desde ya casi tres años a 2016.

Ocurrido esto y en el afán del gobierno por salir de la situación el presidente Nicolás Maduro toma otra decisión muy cuestionada que en boca de muchos analistas termina por reventar la frágil economía venezolana: “La creación del precio máximo de venta al público” pues en su opinión la inflación solo se debía a los chismes y especulaciones de los capitalistas olvidando que su gobierno había sido el primero en especular acerca de su divisa, entonces entendamos lo anterior: – tienes una venta de arroz en caracas, el proveedor es de ecuador y te vende el kilo a 20 dólares, el cambio de moneda que te daría el banco de Venezuela sería de 20 bolívares por dólares, en la práctica nadie te daría dólares a ese precio , o sea que si quisieras pagar al proveedor tendrías que darle un equivalente de 20.000 bolívares; una vez comprado el arroz llegas a caracas y vas a vender en tu tienda y te encuentras que el gobierno tiene un control de precios (socialismo del siglo XXI) y no puedes vender tu arroz más caro de 1.000 bolívares, lo que significa que no estas ganando si no que estás perdiendo.- en el anterior caso las únicas opciones serian 1. Cerrar la tienda 2. Vender en el mercado negro; esto respondería un poco porque muchos venezolanos buscan comprar productos en otros países como el nuestro, a esto se le suma que cualquier producto que quieras usar necesita de algún elemento, o materia prima que se da en el extranjero pues a la fecha ningún país es capaz de producir todo lo que consume, todos los países necesitan comerciar con otros para acabar la producción de lo que se consume, y más Venezuela que como dijimos anteriormente basó la mayoría de su economía solo en el petróleo.

Siendo así que al país le resulta más rentable comprar el crudo a países como Estados Unidos que producirlo ellos mismos, pues el costo de producción es muy alto en comparación con el precio del barril, por esto es que muchas veces hemos visto o simplemente escuchado de algunos ciudadanos venezolanos como la gente en ciudades como Caracas se pelean por un rollo de papel de higiénico; terminando ya aquí vale la pena decir que esto es un tema muy complejo que tiene raíces mucho más profundas que serían imposible describir en unas simples páginas, aquí solo se pretende que el lector se haga una idea de la problemática venezolana diferente a la que exponen los medios de comunicación; por otro lado solo resta esperar si Nicolás Maduro es o no capaz de sacar su país de esta crisis, aunque por los últimos acontecimientos es claro que las decisiones políticas no son las mejores.

Por: Julián Enrique Betancourt Nieto
Estudiante Ciencia Política, Universidad del Tolima

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