Las cifras criminales o leerse de nuevo “El diablo de los Números”

Imagen de referencia

Imagen de referencia

Una vez firmada e iniciada la paz estable y duradera al conflicto social y armado, entre el gobierno colombiano y la guerrilla de las Farc – EP, se les acabó la inexorable excusa que ante todos los males sociales en el campo y en la ciudad, vapuleaban diariamente – sin contexto ni datos objetivos – una prensa de derecha – que es casi toda – y unas disfuncionales oficinas de Ejército y de Policía, quienes por antonomasia y, tal vez, por justificar los enormes recursos públicos gastados en salarios y publicidad, sirven de alimento a una privilegiada burocracia sin sentido, antes o después de la firma.

La criminalidad es visible. Ningún hampón o criminal – de ghetto o de cuello blanco – tuvo que pagar un solo peso a un lobista para esa visibilización. Solo la voluntad concretizada de dos ejércitos en conflicto por superar una guerra social, hicieron posible el mostrarnos como somos: una sociedad proclive al despojo de lo ajeno y a conseguir fortuna sin trabajar.

Por ello, el oir en radio, ver en TV o leer en la web o en la prensa, de boca o por teclado de los avezados columnistas de la derecha o de los oficiales de Policía o de Ejército, nacionales o regionales, de sus informes “estadísticos” sobre disminución de los crímenes individuales o sociales, deja un mal sabor que nos intuye a que no se asistió plenamente a las clases de matemáticas elementales.

Es un oxímoron el enterarse en esos informes, que hoy el crimen tal, “estuvo” por debajo de la “misma cifra” en el año tal. O como suelen destacar los mismos – al decir de Pombo, muy tiesos muy majos – que la “estadística” “arroja (sic)” una reducción “comparativamente” a la cifra tal.

La estadística es una aplicación de la matemática y esta es a su vez una ciencia exacta basada en abstracciones (números y signos) que solo existen en la mente de los seres humanos. Por ahora.

Por ello como abstracción aplicada, debe contextualizarse y de ello está inundada la misma estadística: muestra, población, universo, frecuencia, media, determinación, desviación, varianza, regresión, progresión, etc.

Así que hacer uso – en los datos criminales invisibilizados por décadas – de la sola “frecuencia” (comparar por comparar medias), sin ton ni son, fuera de ser un exabrupto matemático, podría configurar una falsedad ideológica, que es maña vieja de los columnistas de derecha, pero que es un delito para cualquier funcionario público.

Qué bien le vendría a los funcionarios civiles de las oficinas estadísticas de Policía y de Ejército, leer o releer “El Diablo de las Números”, con ello, además de rendir un justo homenaje a sus colegas que diariamente, con o sin estadística, combaten los crímenes, o el evitar una posible indagación, parafrasearían aquel manoseado adagio que “en tierra de ciegos, el tuerto es rey”.

Por: Luis Orlando Ávila Hernández
Ingeniero agrónomo y propietario de la extinta Tienda Cultural La Guacharaca

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  106. Nomis is often a fast-growth software business enterprise that brings together cutting-edge Silicon Valley approaches to big info, state-of-the-art modeling, and deep analytics to help sizeable and medium-sized retail banks greater understand their clientele
    Nationwide
    Nationwide may be a British mutual money institution also, the largest developing society during the world. Made up of over a hundred mergers, it is truly a top-three provider of household savings and mortgages on the UK. By belongings, Nationwide is larger than all in the remaining 44 British constructing societies combined. Nomis Price Optimizerв„ў makes it possible for Nationwide to more beneficial serve its clients, augment its previously tiered method to lending, and offer rates that are tailored to the market, account for risk, and are easiest suited to the customer.
    Key successes
    Gained a significant 40 basis points in improved profit
    Even more final results: Strategically repositioned personal loan product as ‘high margin’ with greater profitability; identified the opportunity to increase profits by 10% employing strategic pricing alone; increased understanding in the value of data-driven decisions; and offered far more personalized pricing with no negative impact to customer satisfaction.
    We’ve partnered with Nomis Solutions to employ a increased customer-centric and tailored tactic to pricing that will allow us to price our unsecured loans opportunity appropriately and prudently. The Nomis Price Optimizer enables us to understand the impact of pricing on customer response and use that insight to make smarter pricing decisions with this difficult environment.
    Simon Beresford, Head of Consumer Lending, Nationwide
    Scotiabank
    Scotiabank is an individual within the leading economic institutions in North America with the international presence in fifty countries. With headquarters in Toronto, the bank was founded in 1832. Scotiabank has over 18 million clientele and over $500 billion in property. Scotiabank partnered with Nomis to implement the Nomis Customer Portfolio Optimizationв„ў suite.
    Key outcome
    Exceeded projected 1.3% uplift in property retained (with no amount to margin) and $3.5 million in Net Interest Income over the 1st yr
    Overall retention rate increased by 1.9%
    Average yield remained steady at less than 1 basis point below internet marketing business as usual
    Average income increased by $5.1 million
    Supplemental good results: Increased retention significantly over plan with direct mail campaigns in targeted segments; kept sales officers inside pricing guidelines; and heightened renewal activity during the offer period by phasing proactive contact.
    Before Nomis, our renewal contact with shoppers was basically regulatory-driven. Nomis helped us accompanied by a quite a bit a whole lot more disciplined contact strategy. What we needed was someone to apply analytic discipline to our mortgage retention initiatives and to present assistance on which buyers have been most most likely to attrite so we could focus our efforts on those consumers. What it boiled down to was what potential customers to contact, how to contact them, and what renewal rate we should offer them. Within the same time, our pricing was entirely dependent on our sales officer’s negotiation. With Nomis, we had been able to standardize our pricing and offer rates to our visitors dependent primarily on their own probability of attrition. We not only met our commerce case objectives, we exceeded them. whilst within the same time we had been able to keep our margins stable.
    Lezley Chafetz, Director of Product & Program Model, Scotiabank
    Top 5 US Bank
    +16% originations with improved risk and profit
    Top 5 US Bank
    “T5” was beneath intense pressure in the declining market with increasing loss rates. This top-five bank’s home equity leadership sought a way to as soon as possible increase margins, sustain volume, and leverage pricing to produce a greater attractive portfolio composition and risk profile, though effectively deploying increasingly scarce capital. They carried out Nomis Price Optimizer™ for Home Equity to mechanically calculate the profit-optimal price points for hundreds of thousands of product pricing cells, improve the efficiency from the pricing practice by centralizing pricing content and models in a single technique, and leverage simulation to gain greater visibility into product and portfolio efficiency. They also sought to understand the impact of price adjustments and macroeconomic changes before implementing new prices inside the market.
    Key good results
    Increased profits by four.9% even when significantly increasing volume by 15.5%
    Other benefits: Monitored the impact that new rates had on overall performance and rapidly made changes to realize desired success; without delay updated goals and internal constraints to the entire portfolio, a particular product, or a particular micro-segment; leveraged “what-if” scenarios to determine what would happen if they matched a competitor rate inside a particular market segment and to simulate the impact of higher loss rates on effectiveness; and determined through simulation the cross-price effects on other products around the portfolio before implementing a product rate change to ensure that their decisions led to desired credit mix and efficiency targets.
    By implementing a profit-based pricing tactic, we’ve gained a significant advantage that permits us to higher manage our general performance inside a volatile home equity market.
    Vice President of Home Equity Lending, T5
    Ned Bank
    Nedbank Group Constrained is the fourth largest banking group in South Africa, with the second largest retail deposit base. Using a legacy of market-based pricing, the bank was seeking a strategic technique to pricing that would permit them to a bit more easily and consistently evaluate potential pricing decisions and increase their speed of learning. For the same time, Nedbank wanted to make a extra customer-centric strategy to pricing, taking into account preferences, demand, and overall relationship profitability on the pricing system. To realize their deposit goals, the bank needed to increase Net Interest Income and improve retention without sacrificing balances and volumes. Nedbank also wanted a added precise strategy to predicting long run balance flows underneath varying market conditions. They selected the Nomis Price Optimizerв„ў resolution.
    Key benefits
    Achieved 18% spread improvement and 12% incremental Net Interest Income with the initially 5 months with less than 1% impact on balances
    Gained sophisticated ability to predict foreseeable future balance flows underneath varying conditions
    More benefits: Increased profitability of potential clients through a improved understanding of potential balance cannibalization; achieved a lot better volume and margin trade-offs which has a a little more granular pricing strategy; and freed resources for higher-value, a bit more strategic activities by operationalizing a well-defined pricing methodology during the Nomis software.
    We now glimpse at new product offerings accompanied by a greater understanding on the potential implications with the rest of your book. It is also led us to structure our products in these kinds of a way that we have different strategic approaches to pricing on all of these products. The segmentation has allowed us to differentiate dependant upon the clients’ needs, which differentiation is additionally included in new product advancement. The outcomes of new introductions are clearly understood and measurable. Furthermore, we have a clearer understanding of how the products flow around just about every other and how the clientele react in different economic cycles to different product categories.
    Alison Teal, Head of Retail Balance Sheet Management, Nedbank Group essay service

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